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Lake Austin Drawdown Canceled for 2026: What It Means for Waterfront Owners and Buyers
Johnny Ronca September 25, 2026
Johnny Ronca September 25, 2026
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THE 15-SECOND ANSWER
On September 24, 2026 the City of Austin canceled the Lake Austin drawdown that had been scheduled for October 12 through November 30. It was not moved to a later date — it was called off, and no replacement date has been announced. Lake Austin stays at its normal level through the fall. If you had dock, bulkhead or boat-slip work timed to the low water, that window is gone and there is nothing on the calendar to plan around yet.
Last updated: September 24, 2026 · By Johnny Ronca, SERHANT. Luxury Associate Broker
Lake Austin holds its level year round. That is the whole argument for owning on it — and it is why a drawdown is news at all.
I have been selling Austin waterfront for 20 years, 300+ closings and $250M+ in sales, and most of that has been on these two lakes. So let me tell you what actually happened, what it changes, and what the closed sales say about buying on Lake Austin right now.
The City of Austin and the Lower Colorado River Authority had announced a drawdown of Lake Austin running October 12 through November 30, 2026. The lake was to be lowered about 10 feet, to a target of 481.8 to 482.8 feet above mean sea level, on the stretch between Mansfield Dam and Tom Miller Dam. That puts normal operating level right around 492 feet.
The stated purposes were practical ones: give waterfront owners dry access to repair docks, bulkheads and boat slips; let Austin Fire Department and Austin Parks and Recreation complete planned maintenance; and let owners clear debris and manage nuisance vegetation along their shoreline.
On September 24, 2026, the City announced it was canceled.
Two reasons, and the second one matters more than the first if you own here.
One: the fall calendar. Lowering the lake ten feet from mid-October through November would have hit the fall wedding season, University of Texas home football weekends and Formula 1 — the busiest and most profitable stretch of the year for the boat charters, lakeside restaurants and event venues that line the water. Those operators pushed back, and the City listened.
Two: there is no good alternative window. Stakeholders asked to move it to January or February 2027. LCRA advised against it. Following Winter Storm Uri in 2021, LCRA no longer conducts drawdowns on the Highland Lakes during winter, so the hydroelectric generators at the dams stay available to support the Texas power grid during cold snaps. That is a standing policy, not a one-time scheduling conflict — which is why this was canceled rather than rescheduled.
Assistant City Manager Mike Rogers put it this way: “City staff will continue evaluating economic, operational, environmental and community considerations associated with potential future drawdowns, and we will remain engaged with LCRA and Lake Austin stakeholders as future opportunities are considered.”
Translation: there will be another one eventually, and nobody can tell you when.
This is the part most buyers moving to Austin do not understand until they have shopped both lakes.
Lake Austin sits between Tom Miller Dam and Mansfield Dam and is operated as a constant-level lake. It is held at roughly the same elevation all year, every year. Lake Travis, immediately upstream, is a flood-control reservoir — it is supposed to rise and fall, and it does, by tens of feet.
What that difference buys you, in plain terms:
The canceled drawdown is, in a sense, the exception that proves the rule. The reason it was news is that the level basically never changes. A ten-foot drop is such an unusual event that it moves wedding bookings and F1 traffic.
Deep water at the dock in every month of the year is the practical difference between the two lakes.
These are closed sales from ACTRIS — homes flagged waterfront in 78703, 78730, 78733 and 78746, the four ZIP codes that front Lake Austin without ambiguity. I deliberately left out 78732, because Steiner Ranch touches both lakes and mixing in Lake Travis frontage would make the numbers meaningless. Thirty-four closed sales over the trailing 24 months.
Lake Austin waterfront | 2025 | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|
Closed sales | 19 | 9 |
Median close price | $4,365,000 | $5,050,000 |
Median price per sq ft | $1,039 | $1,173 |
Median size | 2,790 sq ft | 3,724 sq ft |
Median days on market | 121 | 273 |
Range | $1,425,000 – $8,500,000 | $945,000 – $8,520,000 |
Medians. 2026 is year to date through September 24. Nine sales is a thin sample — read the direction, not the decimal.
The median close price looks like it jumped 15.7%, from $4.365M to $5.05M. It did not. The median home that sold got 33% bigger — 2,790 square feet in 2025, 3,724 in 2026. That is a change in what traded, not a change in what waterfront costs. Price per square foot is the fairer read, and it is up about 13%.
The number that actually tells you something is days on market: 121 in 2025, 273 in 2026. Lake Austin waterfront is taking more than twice as long to sell. That is a buyer’s market in the most literal sense.
Averages hide what is actually happening here. Look at individual 2026 closings and the market splits cleanly into two groups.
Priced right, it is still a fast market:
Priced on hope, it is brutal:
Across all 34 closed waterfront sales in the trailing 24 months, the median home closed at roughly 85% of its original list price. Not its reduced price — the number it first came to market at. On Lake Austin, giving up about 15% between the first sign and the closing table is closer to normal than to a failure.
That figure is remarkably stable year to year, which is what makes it trustworthy. 2025 came in at a median of 87.4% of original list. 2026 sits at 88.5% once you set aside 1700 Lakeshore Dr, which came to market at $17,800,000 and closed at $8,520,000 after 896 days — a full teardown and remodel property, and not a data point that tells you anything about a finished home. Leave it in and 2026 reads 81.6%, but with only nine sales in the year one property swings the whole median. The honest read is that the relationship has not really moved: Lake Austin waterfront has been closing in the mid-to-high 80s as a share of original ask in both years.
One distinction worth holding onto, because it is where most people misread this number. Closing 15% below the original list is not the same as a buyer negotiating 15% off the asking price. Most of that gap is produced by price reductions along the way, not at the negotiating table. Whoever bought 2917 Westlake Cv did not talk $1.8M off a $7.6M ask in one conversation — the seller spent the better part of a year arriving at a number the market would meet, and the buyer negotiated from there. For a seller, that is the argument for pricing correctly on day one. For a buyer, it is the reason a listing’s history matters as much as its current price.
Same lake, same year. The difference was the list price on day one.
If you are buying: the long-DOM listings are where the money is. A home that has been sitting 250+ days has a seller who has already made peace with a number far below where they started. That is the conversation I am having on Lake Austin right now.
If you are selling: the five-day sale and the 896-day sale are not different markets, they are different pricing decisions. I will show you the five or six homes that genuinely compare to yours before we pick a number, and I will tell you plainly what they mean.
Lake Austin trades on precision. The homes that price correctly still sell in days.
The lake is not one market. A few starting points:
The Westlake Drive corridor holds most of the lake’s eight-figure frontage.
JOHNNY’S OFF MARKET PRIVATE LUXURY LISTINGS
Some of the best frontage on this lake never reaches the MLS. Owners of trophy waterfront often will not accept a sign in the yard, a public price history, or strangers touring their home — so the house trades quietly between brokers. Seventeen of those are on Lake Austin right now and I can tell you about all of them.
Tell me your range and your must-haves — deep water, a boat house, flat lawn to the shoreline, Eanes ISD — and I will tell you what is available today, not when it hits the market.
Book a private callText LAKEAUSTIN to 512-797-0965
Or fill out the private listings form on the Lake Austin page and I will send the full off-market list.
“Johnny was outstanding to work with. He’s a genuine breath of fresh air, a good person, and a sharp realtor. He didn’t just tell us that he wanted to help us find the right home, he took action and really did all he could to ensure that our best interests were well represented. When we found the home we wanted, Johnny went to work negotiating to save us money and making sure that no detail was overlooked. I would wholeheartedly recommend Johnny to anyone looking for their next home. You can’t go wrong with Ronca!”
— David Hall, Steiner Ranch homebuyer
“Johnny is the most personable, charismatic, and deeply connected Realtor in Austin. I’ve known him for over 15 years and not only will he be a great realtor and find you everything you are looking for, he will plug you into an incredible community.”
— William Naylor, Founder, AWKN Ranch
And one where the public record backs up the review. Ryan B. wrote that I helped him buy in Lakeway in January 2021 at a great price and then sold the same home for him. The MLS says exactly that: 334 Sailmaster St, bought at $426,000 on 01/19/2021 and sold at $625,000 on 11/12/2021. A five-star review and the deed record agreeing on the same house is about as good as proof gets.
Twenty years on this water. Ask me anything about any stretch of it.
Canceled. The City of Austin announced on September 24, 2026 that the October 12 – November 30 drawdown would not happen, and no replacement date was announced. Stakeholders asked for January or February 2027 and LCRA advised against it.
Since Winter Storm Uri in 2021, LCRA has not conducted drawdowns on the Highland Lakes during winter, so the hydroelectric generators at the dams stay available to support the Texas power grid during cold weather.
About 10 feet, to a target of 481.8 to 482.8 feet above mean sea level, on the stretch between Mansfield Dam and Tom Miller Dam. Normal operating level is right around 492 feet.
Unknown. The City says it will keep evaluating with LCRA and lake stakeholders. There is no scheduled date.
Yes. Lake Austin is held at essentially the same elevation year round, unlike Lake Travis, which is a flood-control reservoir whose level rises and falls significantly. That is why a 10-foot drawdown is a notable event rather than a normal season.
No. Dock and shoreline permitting on Lake Austin is handled by the City of Austin, not LCRA, and the cancellation does not change permit requirements. It only removes the low-water window that made some repairs easier. See my full guide to Lake Austin docks and permits.
Through September 24, 2026 there have been 9 closed waterfront sales in the 78703, 78730, 78733 and 78746 ZIP codes, with a median close price of $5,050,000 and a median of $1,173 per square foot. The 2025 figures were 19 sales at a $4,365,000 median and $1,039 per square foot. Note that the median home sold in 2026 was 33% larger, so price per square foot is the fairer comparison.
Median days on market went from 121 in 2025 to 273 in 2026 — more than double. Correctly priced homes still move in under three weeks; overpriced ones are sitting nine months or longer.
Yes. I currently have 17 off-market waterfront pocket listings on Lake Austin. Call or text 512-797-0965 and I will tell you what fits your criteria.
Different trade. Lake Austin gives you a level that never moves and a short drive downtown, at a meaningful premium per square foot. Lake Travis gives you more land and more house per dollar, with a lake level that swings. Compare them on my Lake Austin and Lake Travis guides.
I am Johnny Ronca, Luxury Associate Broker with SERHANT. in Austin — 20 years here, Top 1% nationwide, 300+ closings and $250M+ in sales, with waterfront as the specialty. Before you tour anything I will pull the five or six homes that genuinely compare, show you the real closed numbers, and tell you straight when something is overpriced.
Right now that matters more than usual. Median days on market on Lake Austin waterfront has more than doubled, which means there is real negotiating room on the listings that have been sitting — and almost none on the ones priced correctly. Knowing which is which is the whole job.
Book a callCall or text (512) 797-0965Get the 2026 Austin Buyer’s Playbook
Johnny Ronca · Luxury Associate Broker, SERHANT. · (512) 797-0965 · Market figures are medians from ACTRIS closed sales and will change. Confirm current conditions before making a decision.
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Matched MLS sold data for Westlake 78746, 78704, Circle C, Lake Austin and Lake Travis
The City called off the October-November drawdown on September 24 with no new date. Here is what changed, and what 34 closed waterfront sales say about buying on Lake … Read more
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